FNIA NOTES: Minnesota at Green Bay

By Elliott KALB

MINNESOTA (10-6) AT GREEN BAY (11-5)

After going 3-13 in 2011, Minnesota surprised the NFL by winning its last four games to finish 10-6, and securing the final wild card spot in the NFC.

Minnesota and Green Bay met twice in December, with the home team winning each contest. The Packers knocked off the Vikings in Week 13, 23-14, while the Vikings clinched a playoff berth in Week 17, with a 37-34 win over Green Bay.

Now, the two rivals will meet on Saturday for just the second time ever in the playoffs, with a trip to the NFC’s Divisional round on the line.

What is the history of teams that meet in the postseason after playing the final regular season game against each other?  The most obvious trend is that in the rematch–the playoff game–the home team (and therefore the better team based on seeding) has gone 10-2, or a winning percentage of .833. What is fascinating is that by my count, home teams have a winning percentage of .659 (58-30) in the Wild-Card round since 1990.

The Vikings haven’t won a game outdoors this season and some people would say they’ll be playing their first defining cold-weather game since the days of Metropolitan Stadium, and that’s the Packers’ greatest advantage for this game.

The last time the Vikings went on the road and beat a team in weather conditions at 32 degrees or below were 2010, in the Tuesday night game against Philadelphia. Before that? The 2004 Wild Card playoff game against…Green Bay, in Lambeau.

Adrian Peterson has rushed for 409 yards and a 7.4 yards per carry average in two games against the Packers. That must not happen again, either, for the Packers to win.

Last Sunday, the Packers keyed on motion, repeatedly bringing a safety down to the strong side of the Vikings’ formation to try to keep HB Adrian Peterson from getting outside. So, Peterson gashed them on runs called between the tackles instead — running for 199 yards and a touchdown on a career-high 34 carries (5.9 average), forcing 11 missed tackles and gaining 119 yards after contact (60% of his yards). He stiff-armed MLB Brad Jones on a lead play that went for 22

Don Barclay (rookie right tackle from West Virginia) goes against defensive ends Brian Robison and Everson Griffen Saturday night.  Robison, who has 8½ sacks and 22 hurries, and Griffen (eight, 25) each had a sack against Barclay Sunday at the Metrodome. Robison opposed Barclay for three quarters while Griffen was playing inside on passing downs. Down the stretch, the Vikes put Griffen over Barclay and it was near domination.

On the other side, left tackle Marshall Newhouse held up well against defensive end Jared Allen.

With Percy Harvin (ankle) out since Nov. 4, the Vikings have relied more than ever on Adrian Peterson.  Peterson ran the ball 348 times this year (including 31,24,25, and 34 times the last four games).

The Vikings are helped by their offensive line.  Matt Kalil, Charlie Johnson, John Sullivan, Brandon Fusco and Phil Loadholt started all 16 games.

The Vikings went into the season with new starters at left tackle (Kalil), left guard (Johnson) and right guard (Fusco). Kalil, a rookie, and Fusco, a second-year player, never had started an NFL game.

On defense, Minnesota’s Jamarca Stanford, after losing his starting job to Mistral Raymond in training camp, he was forced back into a leading role after Raymond dislocated his ankle in Week 3. Sanford played so well in the six games Raymond missed that he earned the opportunity to keep starting with the two safeties splitting time over the final seven games.

Ponder played perhaps the best game of his career in Week 17, however, completing 16-of-28 passes against Green Bay for 234 yards and three touchdowns.

Ponder hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 14 quarters of play, and over his last three games has completed 60% of this throws.

Christian Ponder was limited in practice again as the Vikings try to get his sore throwing elbow to “calm down a little bit,” Frazier said. Ponder hurt the elbow when Packers safety Morgan Burnett hit him on a blitz in Sunday’s game.

DuJuan Harris, the Packers running back,  carried the ball 20 times in his three games prior to Sunday, so Vikings coaches did watch film of the second-year back from Troy. But at Minnesota, Green Bay used Harris extensively for the first time. Harris finished with 70 yards on 14 carries.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has passed for 2,823 yards and 24 touchdowns against the Vikings. He has only four interceptions and a 116.4 passer rating.

And Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding in his last three games of the season: 10 TD, 0 INT.  And…Rodgers will have both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, which will enable Rodgers to spread the ball around.  Nelson suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale at Minnesota.  Cobb sat out last weekend because of knee and ankle injuries.

James Jones had 14 receiving touchdowns, most in the NFL this season.

If there were any doubt about the impact CB Antoine Winfield (18 snaps) has on the Vikings defense, this erased it. Rodgers repeatedly targeted CB Marcus Shrels,  who replaced Winfield as the nickel and had almost every ball thrown to his side the rest of the way. Sherels ended up surrendering 123 yards on six completions, including a go ball to WR Jordy Nelson that went for 73. Sherels always competes, but he’s no match for the way Rodgers can attack the middle of the field.

Winfield remained mostly a spectator on Thursday as the Minnesota Vikings held their final full practice on a short week before their NFC wild-card playoff against Green Bay. He played only 18 snaps before dropping out of last weekend’s win over the Packers in the second quarter because of pain and swelling in his broken right hand.

The Pack will have Charles Woodson back, but how much will he play and how effective will he be?  He’s missed 9 games.  The biggest decision Dom Capers has to make is whether to leave Charles Woodson at safety full time or continue to move him into a slot corner position when he goes to the nickel or dime scheme. CaseyHayward has proved to be an outstanding slot corner with a team-leading six interceptions, and it would be a mistake to use of his cover skills.

The Vikings had four offsides penalties in the first half of Green Bay’s 23-14 victory at Lambeau Field on Dec. 2.

The Packers are 7-1 at Lambeau this season.

Blair Walsh set the NFL record for most field goals of 50 or more yards in a season with ten (and his first miss from 50 yards out or more will be the first of his career) while going 35-of-38 overall in replacing veteran Ryan Longwell. He also set a team record for touchbacks with 53, finishing third in the NFL in that category.

Mason Crosby was only 2-9 this year in 50+ yard field goal attempts.

Crosby was 21-33 FG this year.